Is there any bet that is truly a sure thing? Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) believed what has been called Pascal’s Wager was a sure thing when it came to helping others come to faith in God.  He was a French mathematician, physicist, and Roman Catholic theologian who opined, “Men despise religion. They hate it and are afraid it may be true. The cure for this is first to show that religion is not contrary to reason, but worthy of reverence and respect. Next make it attractive, make good men wish it were true and then show that it is.”  

As only a genuine math geek might do, he devised a formula, Pascal’s Wager, to demonstrate the wisdom of placing one’s faith and belief in God. His “wager” has been closely examined and found to be flawed for reasons I will outline and briefly review below. As a result, many people, me included, recommend against using it for evangelism. Still, I believe that its logic works well as a conversation starter that may lead to sharing the gospel.  

Pascal’s Wager was contained in his Pensées, published posthumously in 1670. Apparently discounting the work of Anselm, Aquinas and Descartes, among others, he chose not to prove God’s existence. Instead, he argued that a person had nothing to lose and everything to gain if they simply believed God exists, whether or not he actually does. As we shall see, his rationale may be flawed, but it stands as an early, if not the earliest use of decision theory under uncertainty, which holds that both the environment and the individual determine the outcome of a person’s decision or action(s).

His rationale can be summarized like this. If you do not believe in God and you are correct, you lose nothing. If you believe in God and you are wrong, you gain hope and a better here and now, but lose nothing in eternity. If you do not believe in God and you are wrong, you spend eternity in hell. But, if you believe in God and you are correct, you gain a better here and now plus heaven for eternity. Regardless of the criticism it has received, Pascal’s Wager, along with Anselm’s Ontological Argument may be the two most famous arguments in the philosophy of religion. The wager may lead one to accept some type of theism, but not the Christianity Jesus taught and underscored with his Sermon on the Mount (Matthew 5-7).

Pascal’s wager only considers two options,  belief or disbelief in his God and the afterlife he imagines. Others include: belief in a different god or gods. Just as the possibility of infinite gods may exist, an infinite number of potential afterlife benefits and penalties may also exist. There is also agnosticism leaning toward belief and agnosticism leaning toward disbelief in Pascal’s God or other gods, along with any associated afterlife loss or gain.

Agnosticism adds an additional problem by leaving one to wonder how much of a “lean” toward belief is necessary in order to receive a benefit. Pascal’s wager potentially rewards even a slight lean toward belief. The cost of faith (eg. worship, study, prayer, meditation, etc.) is not considered in potential loss if Pascal’s God or other gods do not exist. Is the salvation obtained by belief a gurantee (eternal security) or can it be lost? Finally, perhaps some alternative between heaven, hell or final death exists (eg. reincarnation, a spirit world, a second-chance state of existence ).

After considering just these few criticisms, the most obvious unanswered question resulting from Pascal’s wager is this, if you believe the God of Christianity exists, is that belief sufficient to gain the promised reward(s)? Pascal’s unstated assumption is that belief in God guarantees those who believe in him a place in heaven. However, from a New Testament, Christian perspective the answer is a resounding, “No.” Jesus is not included in his argument. His assumption contradicts what Jesus said about access to God. “Jesus answered, ‘I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me.’” (John 14:6 | NIV)

People can come to an awareness of God through observing nature. Apostle Paul, said it like this “since what may be known about God is plain to them, because God has made it plain to them. For since the creation of the world God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse.” That passage, Romans 1:19-20| NIV, describes what theologians call general revelation. Many people have expressed belief in God upon seeing a beautiful sunset or other example of beauty or complexity in nature. But does that meet the standard for justification?

Certainly, faith in God is a good starting point since “without faith it is impossible to please God, because anyone who comes to him must believe that he exists and that he rewards those who earnestly seek him.” (Hebrews 11:6 | NIV). God rewards those who look for him by drawing them to his son. “No one can come to me unless the Father who sent me draws them, and I will raise them up at the last day.” (John 6:44 | NIV) According to the writer of the Book of James, belief in God, at best, places you among a select group destined to spend eternity separated from God. “You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that—and shudder.” (James 2:19 | NIV)

Christians believe faith in Jesus is sufficient and absolutely necessary for salvation. “For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith—and this is not from yourselves, it is the gift of God—not by works, so that no one can boast.” (Ephesians 2:8-9 | NIV)

Belief in Jesus gets you in the door. Faith, however, is proven by what you do once you believe. The fruit you produce demonstrates that your faith is genuine. And the first fruit you must demonstrate is repentance. Repentance is turning away from what the world offers to begin living the way Jesus did and start doing those things he instructed his followers to do. If we are truly sold out to Jesus, God may perform miracles through us. But, even if the fruit we produce is less flashy, we will always produce fruit consistent with our faith. (John 15:4-5)

Jesus told his followers to love “the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind.’” (Matthew 22:37 | NIV) And it was not just any God, it was his father. “But these are written that you may believe that Jesus is the Messiah, the Son of God, and that by believing you may have life in his name.” (John 20:31 | NIV) “In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.” (John 1:1 | NIV) Jesus is not only God’s son, he is fully man and fully God, “I and the Father are one.” (John 10:30 | NIV)

Jesus says if you love him you will do what he says. (John 14:15 and Luke 6:46)) Belief in Jesus is not passive. It carries great cost. His followers are expected to deny themselves (Luke 9:23) and surrender complete control to him.  They are expected to love him more than they love anything or anyone, including themselves. (Matthew 10:27, Luke 14:26, and 14:33)

We can not simply sit on a church pew listening and critiquing the Sunday sermon. We have been charged to love God, love others and make disciples. We are expected to walk the talk. In James 2:18, the author says, “But someone will say, ‘You have faith; I have deeds.’ Show me your faith without deeds, and I will show you my faith by my deeds.” (NIV) We are saved by grace alone, through faith alone in Christ alone. But once we have been saved or justified, we are expected to walk in the footsteps of Jesus—to be sanctified. If people do not look at you and at least see a faint glimmer of the one you profess to be following, it may be time to reevaluate whether you are a genuine follower or one in name only.

If you are Jesus’s disciple you have been charged with making other disciples (Matthew 28:19-20). Pascal’s Wager isn’t as helpful in doing that as John 3:16, but it may be used to open a discussion on what it means to follow Jesus. If so, you might ask a person,”Do you have any spiritual beliefs?” If they appear to be open to a discussion of God, then, using Pascal’s logic, you can build from there.